Bio-Gene Technology (ASX:BGT) Valuation
By Anton Crabbe 5th July 2026
As promised, I have put together some valuation figures on BGT. I have based the valuation on similar companies that are listed on the ASX. In the tables 1 and 2 below you will find a little brief about each company and their gross profit, NPAT margins and their PE ratios.
Table 1.
| Company | ASX | Market Segment | Gross Margin | NPAT Margin |
| Advance ZincTek (formerly Advance NanoTek) | ANO | Specialty nanoparticles, personal-care chemicals | 58.8% (FY25) | 10.6% (NPAT A$1.24m on revenue A$11.64m) |
| DGL Group | DGL | Chemical manufacturing, crop protection, logistics | 42.3% (gross profit A$203.9m on revenue A$481.5m) | 0.7% underlying NPAT margin (A$3.5m on A$481.5m revenue) |
| SciDev | SDV | Water treatment & specialty chemicals | 28.0% (FY25) | ~2.0% in FY24 (latest profitable year cited); FY25 reported a small net loss. |
| Nufarm | NUF | Global crop protection chemicals | 29.5% (FY23, strong-cycle year) | 3.5% (FY23 NPAT margin) |
| Incitec Pivot / Dyno Nobel | IPL | Fertilisers, explosives, industrial chemicals | 40.6% (FY24) | 7.5% underlying NPAT margin (underlying NPAT A$400.8m on revenue A$5.36bn) |
Table 2.
| Company | Gross Margin | NPAT | P/E |
| Advance ZincTek | 58.8% | 10.6% | 62.5x |
| Incitec Pivot / Dyno Nobel | 40.6% | 7.5% | 15x |
| Nufarm | 29.5% | 3.5% | 14.5x |
| DGL | 42.3% | 3.4% FY24 | 10–13x |
| SciDev | 28.0% | ~2% | 48x |
Using the information in tables 1 and 2 I have done some scenario analysis on BGT in tables 3 to 6 and used a range of different revenue figures, gross profit and NPAT margins and PE ratios to see what BGT’s share price would look like using different scenarios. I was surprised at the low NPAT margin these companies have and BGT will have to generate substantial revenues above $1b to become a larger profitable company, or if they can produce a higher NPAT margin it could be a significant catalyst for a higher share price.
They have noted in their investor presentations that the total addressable market for their products is US$44b. If they can capture 3-5% of this, they are well on their way to becoming a much larger company. Also, I have used a fully diluted shares figure of 500m for the share valuation except for Table 6 where I increased this figure to 1bn with revenues of $2bn to show how the increase in shares will dilute the share price.
Shares on issue will increase above 500m. As BGT keep raising capital to fund the commercialisation of their products. This will keep diluting the share price and makes a more accurate valuation difficult.
Table 3.
| Revenue $m | 50 | 50 | 50 |
| Gorss Profit Margin % | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Profit Marging % | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Gross Profit $m | 12.5 | 15 | 17.5 |
| NPAT $m | 1 | 2.5 | 4 |
| EPS | $0.002 | $0.005 | $0.008 |
| PE | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| PE | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| PE | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Share Price (PE 20) | $0.04 | $0.10 | $0.16 |
| Share Price (PE 15) | $0.03 | $0.08 | $0.12 |
| Share Price (PE 10) | $0.02 | $0.05 | $0.08 |
| Average Share Price | $0.08 |
Table 4.
| Revenue $m | 250 | 250 | 250 |
| Gorss Profit Margin % | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Profit Marging % | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Gross Profit $m | 62.5 | 75 | 87.5 |
| NPAT $m | 5 | 12.5 | 20 |
| EPS | $0.01 | $0.025 | $0.04 |
| PE | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| PE | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| PE | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Share Price (PE 20) | $0.20 | $0.50 | $0.81 |
| Share Price (PE 15) | $0.15 | $0.38 | $0.60 |
| Share Price (PE 10) | $0.10 | $0.25 | $0.40 |
| Average Share Price | $0.38 |
Table 5.
| Revenue $m | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Gorss Profit Margin % | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Profit Marging % | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Gross Profit $m | 125 | 150 | 175 |
| NPAT $m | 10 | 25 | 40 |
| EPS | $0.02 | $0.050 | $0.08 |
| PE | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| PE | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| PE | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Share Price (PE 20) | $0.40 | $1.01 | $1.61 |
| Share Price (PE 15) | $0.30 | $0.76 | $1.21 |
| Share Price (PE 10) | $0.20 | $0.50 | $0.81 |
| Average Share Price | $0.76 |
Table 6.
| Revenue $m | 2000 | 2000 | 2000 |
| Gorss Profit Margin % | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Profit Margin % | 2% | 5% | 8% |
| Gross Profit $m | 500 | 600 | 700 |
| NPAT $m | 40 | 100 | 160 |
| EPS | $0.04 | $0.099 | $0.16 |
| PE | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| PE | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| PE | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Share Price (PE 20) | $0.79 | $1.98 | $3.17 |
| Share Price (PE 15) | $0.59 | $1.48 | $2.37 |
| Share Price (PE 10) | $0.40 | $0.99 | $1.58 |
| Average Share Price | $1.48 |
Conclusion
Based on the above scenarios I would say if BGT’s share price gets to $1.50 or above the market is pricing in significate growth which will take many years to achieve, if at all, and anything round 10-15c is undervaluing BGT and at 1.7c now I am happy to keep accumulating shares and building my position.
In summary, BGT has clear upside potential if it can successfully commercialise its products and capture even a small share of the large addressable market it is targeting. However, investors need to remain realistic about the timeline and the risks. BGT is still years away from generating meaningful cash flows and profits, and the path to commercialisation will almost certainly require more capital raises along the way. These raises will increase the number of shares on issue and dilute existing shareholders, which means any valuation should be treated as indicative only and adjusted as the company progresses toward real revenue, sustainable margins and profitability.
Disclaimer: Rational Share Investing With Ratios does not hold an AFSL and information on this site should not be considered financial advice, personal or general, and represents the views of the author.
Reference to specific securities (if any) is included for the purpose of illustration only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the same. All securities mentioned herein may or may not form part of my holdings at a certain point in time, and the holdings may change over time.
Leave a Reply